Jack Reacher wrote:Well I could have chosen not to reply to you.
Yes you could but you didn't because you did not have the right brain state at that particular time to decide not to reply to my post. The fact that we have no free will even reflects in our day-to-day language when we say things like, "It didn't occur to me..." Primarily, unconscious processes in your physiology take place. It is also important to remember that you wouldn't even have the apparent choice of replying to me if I hadn't posted in the first place. The fact that I did has influenced your neurophysiology. My post has been your environmental stimulus.
Again, I do not see an instance of free will here. I only see directed will which is very much guided by emotional urges and thinking arising in the brain - both of which you could not help and did not author. It is true that, if you went back in time, having the knowledge that you have now, you probably would have done things differently. But the truth is that, the past version of yourself, the one that decided to reply, couldn't. Why? Because it was constrained by a particular brain state. Likewise, your present self has a particular brain state that dictates a strong temptation to not reply (just to prove a point!

) if it were to travel back in time a few hours.
Jack Reacher wrote:Before I clicked on the reply button I truly saw two choice, reply or don't reply. For me, in ever present moment I see a range of choices that are bounded by restraints. I define myself in this instance as the causal factor.
Your logic still hinges on the fallacy of free will. You had the illusion of choice, nothing more. Did you know that scientists have measured activity, for instance, in the relevant cortical areas of the brain taking place before a person is even aware of deciding to move a limb? You will always feel more compelled to favour one choice over another and you often can't explain it other than one urge being stronger than the other. Just like you also cannot help what you remember - your brain happens upon it! Again, I do not see free will...
Jack Reacher wrote:As for predicting my next thought, that's an easy one. I will simply tell myself to think of something, and when the time comes, I will think of it.
You may tell yourself that (in this instance because I influenced such plan in you) but you cannot guarantee it. What if you forget the plan? Sure, setting external reminders, such as an alarm clock, will help. But planning ahead isn't an instance of free will, it is a clear example of an urge, a desire brought about by brain chemistry which subsequently influences behaviour. If someone urged you to take a potent drag of a marijuana joint before your plan came to fruition, you might become so euphoric to the point of forgetting about it as you feel compelled to revel in your newfound sensation.
Here is an important clincher: you may decide what you decide but you cannot decide what you will decide. The latter depends upon both external factors and unconscious internal mechanisms. The conscious self is not the author or anything, it is merely a witness. The self is like a supermarket selling fairtrade products with its own logo on the packaging. It takes the credit for the products it sells, but the truth is that the goods have been harvested abroad, a process which takes place beyond their control and awareness...
Jack Reacher wrote:As for predicting an arbitrary thought on some day, that is tough because I can't control events that far. That doesn't mean I don't have any degree of freedom though.
You don't control events in the first place, they control you. And arbitrary thoughts emerge willy-nilly like all others because you do not have a say in what happens at the level of the brain. And when it comes to making decisions, it could go either way and you don't know. But because conscious awareness is akin to a spotlight illuminating stage events, it typically claims authorship of the spotlight content without knowing what's gone on behind the scenes. In this way, the individual lives under the illusion of free will. But there cannot be free will in a world of cause and effect. You may get a sense of freedom in what you do, but your ego is moved by unconscious quicksands, and, ultimately determinism dictates that there is no such thing as objective freedom. And the compatibilist notion that a puppet is free as long as he loves his strings does not wash with me.

Thank you for playing devil's advocate.
You are, aren't you?
There is no free will, it is an incoherent concept that posits a self that is uncaused and capable of violating the chemistry that undergirds it in the first place.
